iPhone 4G will steal 2010

Posted by on May 3, 2010 in Business Start Up Advice, Business Technology, Internet Marketing, Phone Systems, Social Networking [ 4 Comments ]

Even with Android’s growth, the iPhone 4G should still outsell any smartphone model on the market. No other phone has been as anticipated, and no other company could have withstood the same type of negative backlash as the people at Apple.

The poster child for the current mobile technology revolution has been called names, made fun of, and chided by the likes of everyday bloggers to Jon Stewart on Comedy Central for the recent raid of Gizmodo editor Jason Chen’s home.

Even so, YouTube continues to be flooded by developer videos showing off the new operating system, and the blogosphere has continued to cover new features despite the negativity. As the iPad has showed, anything Apple produces, even if it doesn’t yet have a specific practical use, has a loyal market waiting for it.

What will likely help the newest iPhone, which is set to be released in June, is that multiple carriers are supposedly waiting to carry the product as well. If Verizon or even Sprint can manage to carry the handset before year’s end, then Android’s new market shares will likely decrease as quickly as they rose.

Android’s rise has been largely dependent on the number of smartphones that have flooded the market from every single large carrier. By increasing their brand awareness, Google managed to turn a still-young and developing operating system into a household name within a relatively short period of time.

While Android’s marketing plan may have worked, the overall consumer satisfaction over the operating system still varies depending on the handset as well as the number of apps that currently work on that device. Apple’s main advantage, besides the iconic brand name, is in its wide selection of apps. While Android has increased its marketplace selection exponentially over its first year, Apple’s App Store still boasts more applications for download than all of its competitors combined.

With the highly anticipated release of the new iPhone coming in June, Apple’s decision to forgo support for the first two generations of their phones has seemingly helped instead of hurt their sales expectations, since anyone hoping to use their new operating system will either have to upgrade or settle for a slower, unsupported model.

4 thoughts on “iPhone 4G will steal 2010

  1. avatarRatnok, Denver, CO

    This article is a joke. It basically says, “Everybody already knows Apple, so it’s gotta win this year dude! Oh yeah, and it had more apps than anybody, so it can never lose in the future too! Maybe it’ll come to Verizon or Sprint, uh, I don’t know, but IF IT DOES, man, nothing can stop it and everybody will drop what they’ve got and buy an iPhone!”

    This has got to be one of the worst articles I’ve ever seen. Pure speculation, no evidence. All fanboy.

  2. avatarNo Adobe For You!

    You should have talked about the rumored specs of the iphone, and talked about the battle it will have with HTC Incredible, HTC Evo, Nexus One, HTC Legend, HTC Desire, LG Ally, Samsung Galaxy S & Moment 2, Sony Xperia, and much more coming out…

    P.S. Your 4G should be 4th Generation, if it’s a real 4G internet speed, only Sprint has it deploying for this year.

    Here’s more food for thought 😉




    50,000 apps and counting, 100,000 expected by September.

    So with all this information, June’s release on all carriers will decrease market share? I truly doubt it…

  3. avatarDavid Liu Post author

    It’s true that this article does not list a good amount of traditional facts, but it is still a prediction-for-next-quarter article, so hopefully a little leeway can be allowed. However, if we are to specifically look at facts, then I would still come to the same conclusion.

    If Android does in fact hit 100,000 apps by September (meaning it doubles its total amount of apps created, not apps available for download), then it would still trail the App Store’s total, which boasts 200,000 with 3 Billion already downloaded. Even if Apple manages to somehow drop its total production of apps to 0 for the rest of 2010, it would still take Android until 2011 to move up to 33% of the total apps.

    The reports from AdMob, which is essentially a Google subsidiary (pending court rulings), that say that nearly half of its traffic comes from Android phones is telling, but not at all compelling, considering that not all apps use AdMob as a tracking ad agent, and AdMob itself has issued reports that the quickest Android would be able to surpass Apple, if it does, is the second half of 2011, hence saying that Apple will likely take 2010.

    Also, in terms of smartphone shares, it seems slightly premature to assume that Android’s documented, and well-deserved, gains can even stand to threaten Apple in 2010, considering how Google’s near-tripling of it’s shares resulted in 9%, while Apple’s loss of market shares still meant a 25% share.

    The reason Android, a marvel of an operating system to me as well, has increased market shares isn’t because users are buying a specific phone, but because they’re buying one of the many phones currently available from multiple carriers. What hasn’t been accounted for is how much users enjoy their Android phones, as well as the possibility for consumer retention. Also, with as many new phones as Android has on the market, it would essentially have crushed them if they had not been able to double their single digit market share by now.

    If it was either the Motorola Droid or the Nexus One (the two most popular Android models) making the headways, then either Verizon or T-Mobile would have posted even more significant gains by now, which would have made more news than Android’s gains.

    Apple, with only AT&T as its official supplier, still maintains the largest number of phones sold. Multiple surveys have been conducted to see whether current Apple customers would switch networks if that meant they could keep their current phones, and the results showed an overwhelmingly high retention rate, suggesting that brand loyalty, despite market share numbers, is still in high gear. The same cannot, and has not, been said for Blackberry (which owns 40% of the market).

    In fact, surveys from March indicated that 40% of RIM users were hoping to switch to iPhones when the time comes for a new phone; 30% said they would like to switch to Android models. That totals a fair estimate of 70% of Blackberry users who will likely jump ship when the opportunity comes – which is June for the iPhone 4G (4th generation – as the new phone still has yet to release a product name), and May 7th (tomorrow, as of this comment’s posting) for the HTC Droid Incredible, the newest Android model and 3,000th media-labeled “iPhone Killer.”

    Currently, the drop for the iPhone (which is actually only a .01 decrease) isn’t actually a factor that deals with consumers deciding that they no longer want an Apple product (evidenced by the iPad’s record breaking numbers), but because there is a new phone coming onto the market. Anyone hoping to purchase an iPhone in 2010 is likely waiting for the June release, especially since the 3G model is no longer supported, and the 3GS is about to be outdated. And yes, the same can be said for the Incredible, of any other handset yet to be released in 2010. However, none of those phones currently own a quarter of the smartphone market, so any gains in sales and market share, outside of Titanic-status record breakers, will not matter in 2010.

    And to the first comment from Ratnok in Denver, if by “fanboy,” you’re referring to writers currently addressing the fact that Apple has a remarkable lead in the smartphone industry and that it will likely keep the lead until the end of the year, then yes, perhaps this article was written under the impression of fanboy-ism.

    On the same note, if you’re expecting a small handful of new, unproven phones to both suddenly overtake the iPhone, and also skyrocket Android past every other operating system on the market, then perhaps you’re also “fanboying” your expectations beyond either fact, history, or statistics. If it is my wording that is causing the discrepancy, then perhaps I should have titled the blog, “iPhone 4G will, according to statistics and fact, likely rule 2010,” or even “How do you like them apple(s)?”

    Thank you for replying, and I truly enjoyed your comments.

  4. avatarNo Adobe For You! Again!

    Nice write up, mine are brief – here’s a little bit of more kibbles to chew on….:D

    Well phone to phone, you can’t compare sales, this is due to Apple being on it’s 3rd generation, and let’s be honest, anything apple puts out, it will sell millions because they have been doing this for years & got followers & they are established like MS.

    While the media keeps calling every phone up to par of the iphone an iphone killer, there will never be one sales to sales (unless an android phone stays with the same name for years to come).

    Specs to specs, instinct & pre had advantages over the iphone, from voice command, to telenav / turn by turn gps, to visual voicemail, to full multitasking (pre), to mms / sms, to changing batteries, etc. – Iphone is what it is now, because of the “raising of the bar”.

    If the rumored specs are correct from the iphone found in the bar, then it sized down a bit in display size, better resolution, front cam, and can change a battery – finally! This is apple’s view of evolution at its finest!

    There’s a reason why some iphone users are looking somewhere else…look at their wishes for OS 4 or other android options.


    What do they think of the Evo?


    The ipad did ok, but it was nothing like the analyst estimated 700k sales by the weekend; never made it. I’m guessing the numbers have surpassed now…but how can Nexus One (phone) be as fast as the ipad? It doesn’t matter, it will still sell…even with wifi issues, no flash, etc, etc…


    Now the link below has the wow factor…Android phones go second place in 1st quarter sales, right behind RIM.


    Next quarter should be an interesting one with At&t, vzw, tmo & sprint will be rolling out new android phones and battling the new iphone, together maybe they have a chance, just maybe…(Incredible & Evo numbers should be interesting).

    Some might just wait until the rumored fall / winter vzw iphone release, if it does happen – Hot of the press article related to yours…


    P.S. I love android, it has the true no-grip open source OS, evolving phones and now it has Adobe fully backing it up & developer’s flocking to it – Thanks, Mr. Jobs!.

    I truly doubt your quote below will come true; pretty far fetched if you ask me – multiple carriers, eh? Maybe I’m wrong, what do I know… 😉

    What will likely help the newest iPhone, which is set to be released in June, is that multiple carriers are supposedly waiting to carry the product as well. If Verizon or even Sprint can manage to carry the handset before year’s end, then Android’s new market shares will likely decrease as quickly as they rose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>